MAKICHUK: Did US destroy Iran's nuke assets, or just empty bunkers?
America's mighty USAF B-2 bombers may have just bounced shawarma wrappers and empty coffee cups
The news is still reverberating, around the world.
And US President Donald Trump, a.k.a. the Liar-In-Chief, was trumpeting the victory.
"We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan," Trump wrote on social media.
"All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow," he continued. "All planes are safely on their way home. Congratulations to our great American Warriors."
"There is not another military in the World that could have done this. NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE! Thank you for your attention to this matter," he concluded.
The Pentagon joyfully chimed in.
U.S. strikes caused “extremely severe damage” at three nuclear facilities in Iran, Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a news conference Sunday, adding that it was too early to tell the full scale of the destruction at the sites in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
Everyone was patting everyone on the back after Operation Midnight Hammer — and it was an amazing operation, completed by America’s B-2 bomber force, and its famous bunker buster bombs — the 13.5-ton GBU-57 Massive Ordance Penetrator, or MOP.
Bombs that can destroy underground bunkers.
All that notwithstanding, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has admitted, it is too early to tell.
Independent impact assessment of the US strikes at Fordow, the main Iranian nuclear site, remains unclear.
In fact, the three sites hit last night, may have been emptied, save for shawarma wrappers and empty coffee cups.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, says it is likely Iran had taken precautionary actions ahead of the US attacks.
“It appears that they already had gotten an advanced warning,” he told Al Jazeera.
“They understood that he [Trump] was buying time while moving military assets in order to actually strike. So, I think for some time they have moved those assets – where they are is unclear at this point.”
Raising fears in this direction, initial reports from Iran and neighbouring Gulf countries such as Kuwait further indicate that there is no significant leakage of radioactive material from any of the plants.
According to the IRNA news agency, Reza Kardan, the deputy director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and the head of the National Nuclear Safety System Center in the country, confirmed on Sunday that “no radiation contamination or nuclear radiation has been observed outside” the sites.
That suggests that Iranian officials might have moved the stockpiles of enriched uranium out of the facilities targeted by the US.
Speaking on state TV, Hassan Abedini, the deputy political director of Iran’s state broadcaster, said the three nuclear sites had been evacuated “a while ago” and that they “didn’t suffer a major blow because the materials had already been taken out.”
Of course, it is expected that Iranian officials would play down the attack.
But let’s face it, it’s not rocket science.
Iran had plenty of time to remove those assets. And it would be largely impossible, even for satellites, to track every truck that arrived or left those sites, in the middle of the night.
And which truck would be carrying something, and which ones were acting as decoys?
Yes, the Mossad was likely watching, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu is not saying anything — he is too busy kissing Trump’s ass.
So what exactly did the US go after last night?
Fordow is an underground enrichment facility in operation since 2006. Built deep inside the mountains some 48km (30 miles) from the Iranian city of Qom, north of Tehran, the site enjoys natural cover. The primary focus of Sunday’s strikes, Fordow was hit with Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOPs) or “bunker-buster” bombs delivered from B-2 stealth bomber planes. The 13,000kg (28,700lb) GBU-57 MOP is the most powerful bunker-buster bomb, able to penetrate 60m (200 feet) below ground and delivering up to 2,400kg (5,300lb) of explosives, while the bombers are hard to detect. The 14 MOPs were delivered to at least two nuclear sites.
Natanz is considered the largest nuclear enrichment facility in Iran, located about 300km (186 miles) south of Tehran. It is believed to consist of two facilities. One is the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP), which is a test and research facility located above ground and used to assemble centrifuges, rapidly rotating machines used for uranium enrichment. According to the non-profit Nuclear Threat Initiative, the facility had close to a thousand centrifuges. The other facility, located deep beneath the ground, is the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP). US officials did not specify what weapons hit Natanz on Sunday.
Isfahan is an atomic research facility located in the central city of Isfahan. It was built in the 1970s and was used for uranium conversion. It was the last location hit before the US bombing mission, which involved about 125 aircraft, withdrew from the Iranian airspace, according to officials. More than two dozen Tomahawk missiles were fired at Isfahan from US submarines.
If one considers the possibility, that the US attacks may have strengthened the co-operation of the so-called new Axis of Evil, any damaged centrifuges could easily be replaced.
All Iran would have to do, is take the stockpile of enriched uranium to a covert location.
Parsi told Al Jazeera that Iran’s most valuable nuclear asset is its stockpile of enriched uranium.
“As long as they continue to have that, they still actually have very much a nuclear programme that still could be weaponized,” he added.
“And I think we are going to start to hear from the Israelis in rather short order, that this was not the type of successful strike Trump has claimed, but they are going to start making the case that there needs to be a more ongoing bombing campaign against Iran.”
The jury is out folks, and this nightmare is only beginning.
— with files from Al Jazeera
